Shifts in European Security Perceptions After the Russia–Ukraine War: Germany, France, and the United Kingdom

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked the most significant military conflict in Europe since the end of the Cold War and fundamentally altered the European security environment. The war disrupted the framework that had shaped relations between Europe and Russia for three decades, which had largely been based on economic interdependence—particularly in the energy sector—and the assumption that large-scale interstate war on the continent was unlikely.

The conflict forced European governments to reassess key assumptions about security policy. As the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, noted shortly after the invasion, the war compelled European states to reconsider fundamental aspects of their security arrangements and strategic outlook. In particular, it revived concerns about conventional military threats and the need to strengthen national and collective defense capabilities.

This study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on European security policy by analyzing changes in national security concepts and priorities since the outbreak of the war. It focuses on three major European powers—Germany, France, and the United Kingdom—which are among the continent’s most influential states in both military and economic terms. Because these countries have historically adopted different approaches to security and to relations with Russia, a comparative case study analysis provides insight into how the war has affected European security thinking across different strategic cultures.

The study finds that the Russian invasion reinforced the central role of military power in European security policy. After decades in which many European states reduced defense spending and relied heavily on diplomatic, economic, and institutional tools, the war has renewed attention to the importance of credible military capabilities for deterring and responding to external aggression. At the same time, the extent and nature of policy adjustments vary across countries, reflecting their prior security doctrines, threat perceptions, and historical relationships with Russia.

Germany: A Strategic Reassessment

Germany has experienced the most significant shift in its security policy. Prior to the war, Berlin’s approach toward Russia was strongly influenced by the belief that economic interdependence—particularly in the energy sector—would help stabilize relations and reduce the likelihood of conflict. The invasion of Ukraine challenged this assumption and prompted a reassessment of Germany’s defense policy. German decision-makers increasingly recognize the need to strengthen military capabilities and reduce strategic vulnerabilities, including dependence on Russian energy. The war has also reopened debates within Germany regarding issues long considered politically sensitive, such as expanded military capabilities, nuclear deterrence arrangements within NATO, and the potential reintroduction of conscription.

France: Strategic Autonomy within a Changing Security Environment

The war has had a more limited impact on France’s overall security doctrine. Paris continues to advocate greater European strategic autonomy and emphasizes the importance of reducing dependence on the United States for Europe’s security. At the same time, France maintains dialogue with Moscow while supporting Ukraine politically and militarily, although its assistance has been more limited than that of some other Western states. France’s national security strategy remains anchored in its nuclear deterrent, which Paris views as the ultimate guarantee of national defense. Nevertheless, the war has led to increased defense spending and the reversal of a long-standing trend of budget reductions, reflecting renewed concern about the possibility of high-intensity conflict in Europe.

The United Kingdom: Reinforcing Existing Threat Perceptions

In the United Kingdom, the war has reinforced rather than fundamentally altered existing security assessments. Even before 2022, British policymakers viewed Russia as a significant strategic threat and had taken steps to reduce dependence on Russian energy and economic ties. The war nevertheless underscored the continued relevance of large-scale conventional warfare in Europe. As a result, British policymakers have emphasized the need to strengthen conventional military capabilities and maintain robust defense investments to deter and respond to potential aggression.

Overall, the Russia–Ukraine war has prompted European states to reassess the balance between economic engagement and military preparedness. While the scope of change varies across countries, the conflict has renewed attention to the importance of military power as a central component of national and collective security in Europe.